Economic Outlook & Market Data

Treasury yields, macro indicators, economic calendar, and yield curve analysis — the data that drives commercial real estate financing decisions.

Market Indices & Rates

Key benchmarks that determine commercial mortgage pricing across every capital source.

IndexTodayYesterdayLast MonthLast Year
10-Yr Treasury4.087%4.054%4.313%4.290%
30-Yr Treasury4.711%4.689%4.850%4.530%
2-Yr Treasury3.468%3.435%3.780%4.610%
5-Yr Treasury3.748%3.719%3.990%4.280%
1-Yr Treasury3.610%3.592%3.840%4.880%
Fed Funds Rate3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%3.50–3.75%4.25–4.50%
SOFR3.56%3.56%3.56%4.31%
Prime Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%7.75%
S&P 5006,9056,8436,8416,115
Dow Jones49,84149,53349,40843,461
NASDAQ22,87622,57822,59219,649
Gold ($/oz)$4,972$4,952$5,550$2,015
Silver ($/oz)$76.01$74.43$109.30$32.50
Bitcoin$67,758$67,800$78,050$95,200
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

The yield curve shows Treasury rates across maturities. An upward slope is normal; inversions historically signal recession. The curve has normalized from its 2023-2024 inversion.

5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
Current (Feb 19, 2026)
1 Year Ago (Feb 2025)
Key Economic Indicators

The macro data that shapes Fed policy, investor sentiment, and commercial real estate lending conditions.

2.4%
CPI (Annual, January 2026)
Consumer Price Index — headline inflation measure. Down from 2.9% in December. Approaching the Fed's 2% target.
Trending Down
2.8%
Core PCE (Annual, December 2025)
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy. January reading due Feb 21.
Holding Steady
2.3%
GDP Growth (Q4 2025, 1st Est.)
Annualized real GDP growth. Economy remains resilient despite higher rates, supporting asset values.
Solid Growth
4.0%
Unemployment Rate (January 2026)
Labor market remains tight but gradually cooling. Supports gradual rate normalization from the Fed.
Stable
143K
Nonfarm Payrolls (January 2026)
Monthly job gains. Below the 2024 average of 186K, signaling a gradual labor market cooldown.
Moderating
95.3%
Fed Hold Probability (March 2026)
CME FedWatch probability of no change at the March 18 FOMC meeting. Next cut expected mid-2026.
Hold Expected
$35.8T
National Debt
Total U.S. federal debt. Continued fiscal expansion puts upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
Rising
49.2
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan 2026)
Below 50 signals contraction in manufacturing. Industrial property demand remains bifurcated: logistics strong, traditional manufacturing soft.
Contraction
5.2%
National CRE Cap Rate (Avg)
Average all-property-type capitalization rate. Spread over 10-Yr Treasury remains healthy at ~110bp, supporting valuations.
Stabilizing
Upcoming Macro Events

Key economic releases and Fed decisions that impact commercial real estate lending rates.

Feb 21, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
PCE Price Index (January)
The Fed's preferred inflation measure. Key for rate cut probability and commercial mortgage rate direction. December core PCE came in at 2.8% annual.
High Impact
Feb 21, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
Q4 2025 GDP (2nd Estimate)
Second estimate of Q4 GDP. The first estimate came in at 2.3% annualized. Strong GDP supports higher-for-longer rates.
Medium Impact
Mar 7, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
February Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls)
Labor market health directly affects Fed policy. January added 143K jobs. A cooling market strengthens the case for rate cuts.
High Impact
Mar 12, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
CPI Report (February)
Consumer Price Index for February. January CPI dropped to 2.4% annual — continued progress toward 2% target would support rate cut expectations.
High Impact
Mar 18, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET
FOMC Rate Decision & Projections
Next scheduled decision with updated economic projections and dot plot. Markets pricing 95.3% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. Powell press conference at 2:30 PM.
High Impact
Mar 26, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders (February)
Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods. Indicator of business investment and industrial demand.
Medium Impact
Apr 2, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
March Jobs Report
First look at Q1 2026 labor market. Key indicator for May FOMC positioning and mid-year rate cut timing.
High Impact
Apr 10, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET
CPI Report (March)
March inflation data. Trend direction critical for determining if Fed achieves its 2% target by year-end.
High Impact
CLS CRE Market Perspective

February 2026 Rate Environment

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at the January meeting, and the March decision is widely expected to be another hold. Inflation continues to moderate — January CPI dropped to 2.4% — but the Fed wants sustained evidence before cutting further. Markets expect the next cut in mid-2026.

For CRE borrowers, this means the 10-Year Treasury remains range-bound between 3.9–4.3%, and permanent financing rates have stabilized. Life insurance company rates remain the most competitive at 5.50–6.25% for stabilized assets, while bank and CMBS spreads have tightened ~20bp since Q4 2025.

Construction and bridge rates continue to compress as debt fund competition intensifies. We're seeing bridge rates as low as S+275 for strong sponsors, and construction rates at S+325–375 depending on leverage and asset type. This is a meaningful improvement from the 2024 peak.

The yield curve has fully normalized after its historic 2022–2024 inversion. The positive slope supports the case for economic stability, though elevated long-end yields reflect fiscal deficit concerns and persistent term premium.

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